Now we know what we needed to know, to know. 

This is a table which we couldn’t write 3 weeks ago, in mid-April. The reported daily deaths were still coming in around the thousand level. Even those who could see perfectly well that the epidemic was over, including professors of epidemiology, were shouting into the wind.

Then, in sudden days (though not unexpected to such professors, and students of their works), it was all over. UK daily deaths dropped to the low hundreds. Bringing “the lowest figure since lockdown began” strap lines.

Perhaps the covidiots in charge of Govt UK have not noticed. Perhaps, huddled amongst that chaos which constitutes the creation and administration of policy in the present governance of this country, there are some who have noticed. 

Either way, the roulette wheel of death, with which they were captivating the nation in following their Pied Piper footsteps to ruin, has stopped spinning. Les jeux sommes faits.

Why so? Because we now have Fundamental Certainty as to who and how many died.

Yes, there are a few hundred straggler reports to come in. Yes, you can add something approaching 11,000 reported care home deaths: so long as you don’t care about the quality of that reporting (see Chapter 6 of WORLDS ENDS). You can note that only 5.7% of Britain’s elderly actually live in care and nursing homes.

Whichever way Govt UK tries to spin them, these additional data do not move the statistical dial.

What we know with Fundamental Certainty is:

• that there are 8.76 million people in the UK over the age of 70. That is a fact: of the count-them-and-see-for-yourself kind.

• that around 34,000 of that age group have died from or with covid (let us disregard that otherwise vital distinction, for present purposes). That is a fact: of the count-them-and-see-for-yourself kind.

• the laws of arithmetic. That this 34,000 represents (just under) 0.4% of that population of 8.76 million.

It is these 3 Fundamental Certainties, which shutter the casino of hyper-reality in which Govt UK would, since 23 March 2020, have us live.

Firstly, we now have  Fundamental Certainty as to the infection fatality rate in the elderly population. 

Let’s take Govt UK death certificate statistics at face value (which is like trying not to laugh at Charlie Chaplin: see Chapter 6 of WORLDS ENDS). The infection fatality rate in the elderly population: is no higher than 0.4%.

The covidiots’ roulette wheel clatters to the floor at this point. We can now assess, for the over 70’s population, comparative mortality risks in the shop window of any funeral parlour:

• Annual flu (excess deaths): 0.2% - 0.4%

• Cancer (recurring annual deaths): 1.5%

• Dementia (recurring annual deaths): 1.5%

• Heart attack, stroke etc (recurring annual deaths): 1.5%

We can now with Fundamental Certainty add into the range:

• Covid: 0.4%

We can’t at present add the label “excess deaths”, because Govt UK is straining every statistical sinew to avoid that calculation being made. The legacy of their 26 March 2020 change in law and guidance on the completion of Death Certificates by doctors who have never met the deceased (see Chapter 6 of WORLDS ENDS).

Secondly, we now have  Fundamental Certainty as to the proportion of the population which has been infected.

That’s because of a simple inference from observation: counting things and considering them in context.

Look please at the Table at the top of this Article. If only 10% of the elderly population has been infected, then that makes the infection fatality rate a massive 4%. That’s equivalent to the annual fatality rate for all of cancer, dementia and heart attack/stroke combined.

So, the covidphobic says, it could be. Could it really? But wasn’t the infection transmission rate (Re) a whopping 3.4 or even higher at the start of the epidemic? Which even Govt UK accepts was a point in time at least a month prior to lockdown.

At that Re, infection must have whipped through the population. It did. It was the doubling rate of ICU cases which panicked any good sense out of Prime Minister Johnson.

At an infection fatality rate of 4%, we’d have been throwing corpses in the Thames by mid-March. We weren’t. 

So, the simple inference from observation, is that the infection fatality rate cannot be anything like 4%.

Which means that a high proportion of the population must have been infected: and have been able to fight off the infection with no / low symptoms.

You see: a covidiot can’t have their covid cake and eat it.

Thirdly, we now have  Fundamental Certainty as to the presence of Herd Immunity. 

Back to that Table please. Let’s suppose that only 50% of the elderly population has been infected. That gives an infection fatality rate of 0.78%. That looks nasty. Certainly twice the infection fatality rate of flu.

But, just a minute. Turn that equation the other way round. If you, the covidiot, want to claim that infection fatality rate, then 50% of the population must have been infected (and either survived or died). Why “must have”? Because we now have Fundamental Certainty as to who and how many died: that 34,000 (ish) figure.

Once we had that figure, the rest is simple arithmetic. 34,000 is 0.78% of 4.38 million. It is not 0.78% of any other number.

Fundamental Certainty in one number, proves the key to picking open the Govt UK covidiot straight-jacket locks. Go get unlocking.