Schoolboy errors locked down Britain

Please read the 16 March 2020, titled Report  9:  Impact  of  non-pharmaceutical interventions  (NPIs)  to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand.

(1)    Spot the Difference

A bit like a “spot the difference” pictures competition, see if you notice anything odd about these 2 graphs:

You see it? Ferguson states:

“(B) shows the same data as in panel (A) but zoomed in on the lower levels of the graph.”

Well, pretty obviously, it doesn’t “show the same data” does it? They are 2 completely different graphs:

·           It is not until the 3rd week of April in Graph (A) that the line becomes steeply rising.

·           But in Graph (B), that steep rise starts in Week 1.

Since these 2 Graphs “show the same data”, then one of them is wrong; or indeed both are wrong. There are internally contradictory.

It’s the same with the Green line “2nd Peak” over at October to January: Graph (A); oops no, Professor Ferguson means November to February: Graph (B).

There is simply no way out of these contradictions. The Graphs (A) and (B) (where (B) is supposed just to be a focusing in on (A)) don’t match. Not at all.

Is that nit-picking? In the Model. The knife stuck into the spine of Britain?

(2)    Spot the Difference

Take Report, page 7 of 20:

In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB.

Compare the number values of deaths: page 5 of 20:

So, within 2 pages of the Report that saved Britain, we have:

The difference between these 2 figures: on exactly the same data: is

A 38% difference in your modelling for the boarding up of Britain?

(3)    Spot the Difference

It’s endless. The 16 March Report is littered with:

·           Obvious arithmetical mistakes;

·           Tables that don’t match figures;

·           Tables that don’t have reference figures;

·           References to footnote papers which don’t say what is claimed of them.

Then you can read the Transcript of Ferguson’s pre-disgrace YouTube interview, and contrast the information he gives there (about R numbers and the like) with what’s in his 16 March Report.

There’s a polite phrase for this kind of behaviour: academic fraud.

You’ve noticed I have stopped calling him “Professor” Ferguson. I have stripped him of his title. When the public accounting for this fiasco is over, he may expect to be stripped of his liberty. He can then spend his days modelling how long it is till he gets out on parole for mass manslaughter. A life sentence for the life of every British person that he cost (see the Collateral Damage Chapter). That sounds about right.